Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.692779 2.877486 3.075239 3.303885 3.562466 3.847647 4.188489
2025-02-16 2.397007 2.642110 2.919010 3.258951 3.670736 4.161245 4.802341
2025-02-23 2.216291 2.494267 2.820054 3.237448 3.769578 4.442884 5.391092
2025-03-02 2.079545 2.377159 2.735842 3.210995 3.842374 4.683036 5.948267
2025-03-09 1.970752 2.281358 2.664338 3.186046 3.904426 4.905362 6.508315
2025-03-16 1.888022 2.209876 2.614824 3.180556 3.985688 5.157314 7.154005
2025-03-23 1.834784 2.170829 2.602117 3.220090 4.129890 5.516292 8.048342
2025-03-30 1.756554 2.093869 2.532847 3.173249 4.139554 5.663659 8.601887
2025-04-06 1.685865 2.022644 2.466255 3.123753 4.137963 5.788977 9.140215
2025-04-13 1.610059 1.940794 2.380306 3.039385 4.072931 5.796469 9.440040
2025-04-20 1.579877 1.918682 2.375308 3.073098 4.197342 6.149523 10.580131
2025-04-27 1.561785 1.911734 2.390507 3.137204 4.376621 6.630005 12.199593
2025-05-04 1.537847 1.896206 2.393374 3.183819 4.534067 7.103872 14.056623
2025-05-11 1.494262 1.851310 2.351245 3.156371 4.558806 7.314635 15.286026
2025-05-18 1.456171 1.812558 2.316091 3.137377 4.596213 7.558358 16.766080
2025-05-25 1.419105 1.773780 2.278950 3.112403 4.619554 7.774976 18.303205
2025-06-01 1.384784 1.737647 2.244070 3.088731 4.642631 7.995285 20.031468
2025-06-08 1.357260 1.710311 2.221200 3.083520 4.700429 8.310091 22.460553
2025-06-15 1.341827 1.699920 2.223568 3.121049 4.846243 8.877980 26.831421
2025-06-22 1.307761 1.661004 2.180168 3.076582 4.820873 8.992107 28.889042
2025-06-29 1.274846 1.622858 2.136619 3.029570 4.786237 9.076008 30.928732
2025-07-06 1.235817 1.574671 2.075854 2.949377 4.675842 8.930018 31.244780
2025-07-13 1.224066 1.566746 2.078140 2.981431 4.807314 9.510382 38.277275